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Bologna vs Inter Milan Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 38 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 16:00

Bologna

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWD

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Inter Milan

PPG 2.28 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDD

// Model verdict

Away 48% chance

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+15.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-113.5%0-211.1%0-36.1%0-4+3.6%1 1-07.0%1-111.5%1-29.5%1-35.2%1-4+3.1%2 2-03.0%2-14.9%2-24.1%2-32.2%2-4+1.3%3 3-00.9%3-11.4%3-21.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.3% 34.0% 2.94 -20.7%

Draw 25.2% 27.4% 3.65 -4.8%

Away win 52.4% 45.5% 2.20 +15.3%

Over 2.5 47.6% 64.5% 1.55 -26.2%

Over 3.5 24.3% 42.6% 2.35 -25.7%

BTTS 51.6% 67.6% 1.48 -23.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob51.6%

A 52% / xG 0.9-1.6 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 0–1 13.5%

#3 0–2 11.1%

#4 0–0 8.2%

#5 1–2 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bologna0.9

Inter Milan1.6

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 24.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BOLOGNA · PPG 1.17

INTER MILAN · PPG 2.28

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

48%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.28) vs Home AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Bologna (H) 22.3%

ODDS 2.94 · IMPLIED 34.0% EV -20.7%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -4.8%

Inter Milan (A) 52.4%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +15.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bologna face Inter Milan in Italy - Serie A on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bologna a 22% chance, the draw 25% and Inter Milan 52%, so Inter Milan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Bologna and 1.6 for Inter Milan (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bologna are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 2.28 for Inter Milan. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +15.3%. This match finished 3-3.

Bologna vs Inter Milan Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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