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Hellas Verona vs AS Roma Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 38 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 18:45

Hellas Verona

PPG 0.44 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLDL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

AS Roma

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

Away 72% chance

Model probability 58.1% vs bookmaker-implied 77.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-117.2%0-213.4%0-37.0%0-4+3.8%1 1-07.1%1-111.1%1-28.6%1-34.5%1-4+2.5%2 2-02.3%2-13.6%2-22.8%2-31.4%2-4+0.8%3 3-00.5%3-10.8%3-20.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.9% 10.3% 9.70 +26.7%

Draw 27.1% 19.6% 5.10 +22.9%

Away win 58.1% 77.5% 1.29 -25.1%

Over 2.5 46.2% 55.6% 1.80 -16.8%

Over 3.5 18.1% 33.9% 2.95 -28.0%

BTTS 48.6% 43.5% 2.30 +11.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob48.6%

A 58% / xG 0.6-1.6 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 17.2%

#2 0–2✓ 13.4%

#3 1–1 11.1%

#4 0–0 11.1%

#5 1–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hellas Verona0.6

AS Roma1.6

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

HELLAS VERONA · PPG 0.44

AS ROMA · PPG 1.56

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

72%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.56) vs Home POOR (0.44)

Win probability 1X2

Hellas Verona (H) 14.9%

ODDS 9.70 · IMPLIED 10.3% EV +26.7%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +22.9%

AS Roma (A) 58.1%

ODDS 1.29 · IMPLIED 77.5% EV -25.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hellas Verona face AS Roma in Italy - Serie A on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hellas Verona a 15% chance, the draw 27% and AS Roma 58%, so AS Roma are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Hellas Verona and 1.6 for AS Roma (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hellas Verona are averaging 0.44 points per game versus 1.56 for AS Roma. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +26.7%. This match finished 0-2.

Hellas Verona vs AS Roma Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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