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Napoli vs Udinese Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 38 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 16:00

Napoli

PPG 2.22 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Udinese

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 51% chance

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-17.5%0-23.6%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.4%1-111.9%1-25.7%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.9%2-19.5%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.2%3-15.0%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.8%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% 66.7% 1.50 -23.6%

Draw 25.1% 24.4% 4.10 +1.8%

Away win 24.0% 16.0% 6.25 +30.0%

Over 2.5 47.6% 54.1% 1.85 -11.9%

Over 3.5 25.3% 32.3% 3.10 -12.9%

BTTS 51.6% 51.3% 1.95 +0.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.6%

H 51% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–0✓ 12.4%

#3 2–0 9.9%

#4 0–0 7.8%

#5 2–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Napoli1.6

Udinese1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 25.3%

Form & verdict PPG

NAPOLI · PPG 2.22

UDINESE · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

51%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.22) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Napoli (H) 50.9%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -23.6%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +1.8%

Udinese (A) 24.0%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +30.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Napoli face Udinese in Italy - Serie A on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Napoli a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Udinese 24%, so Napoli are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Napoli and 1.0 for Udinese (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Napoli are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 1.50 for Udinese. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +30.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Napoli vs Udinese Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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