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Lecce vs Genoa Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 38 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 18:45

Lecce

PPG 0.94 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Genoa

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.8%0-115.1%0-28.2%0-33.0%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.3%1-113.4%1-27.3%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-05.5%2-16.0%2-23.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.6%3-11.8%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.5% 58.1% 1.72 -47.5%

Draw 32.9% 29.0% 3.45 +13.5%

Away win 36.6% 19.6% 5.10 +86.7%

Over 2.5 36.2% 44.4% 2.25 -18.6%

Over 3.5 13.9% 23.1% 4.33 -23.9%

BTTS 48.6% 46.5% 2.15 +4.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.6%

D 33% / xG 0.9-1.1 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.8%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 0–1 15.1%

#4 1–0✓ 12.3%

#5 0–2 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lecce0.9

Genoa1.1

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.2% · O3.5 PROB 13.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LECCE · PPG 0.94

GENOA · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

Chance this pick lands

49%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.94), Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Lecce (H) 30.5%

ODDS 1.72 · IMPLIED 58.1% EV -47.5%

Draw 32.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +13.5%

Genoa (A) 36.6%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +86.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lecce face Genoa in Italy - Serie A on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lecce a 31% chance, the draw 33% and Genoa 37%, so Genoa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Lecce and 1.1 for Genoa (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lecce are averaging 0.94 points per game versus 1.06 for Genoa. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +86.7%. This match finished 1-0.

Lecce vs Genoa Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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