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Fiorentina vs Atalanta Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 38 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 18:45

Fiorentina

PPG 1.11 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Atalanta

PPG 1.39 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-114.4%0-28.3%0-33.2%0-4+1.2%1 1-011.6%1-113.4%1-27.7%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-05.4%2-16.2%2-23.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.7%3-11.9%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.8% 39.1% 2.56 -18.6%

Draw 30.1% 29.0% 3.45 +3.9%

Away win 38.1% 39.1% 2.56 -2.5%

Over 2.5 46.2% 58.8% 1.70 -21.5%

Over 3.5 15.6% 37.0% 2.70 -34.7%

BTTS 48.7% 64.5% 1.55 -24.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.7%

D 30% / xG 0.9-1.1 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.4%

#2 0–0 12.6%

#3 0–1 14.4%

#4 1–0 11.6%

#5 0–2 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fiorentina0.9

Atalanta1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 15.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FIORENTINA · PPG 1.11

ATALANTA · PPG 1.39

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

49%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.11), Away AVERAGE (1.39)

Win probability 1X2

Fiorentina (H) 31.8%

ODDS 2.56 · IMPLIED 39.1% EV -18.6%

Draw 30.1%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +3.9%

Atalanta (A) 38.1%

ODDS 2.56 · IMPLIED 39.1% EV -2.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fiorentina face Atalanta in Italy - Serie A on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fiorentina a 32% chance, the draw 30% and Atalanta 38%, so Atalanta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Fiorentina and 1.1 for Atalanta (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fiorentina are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 1.39 for Atalanta. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Fiorentina vs Atalanta Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie A Predictions