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Italy - Serie A
Regular Season - 38
Stadio Artemio Franchi· Florence
Friday, May 22, 2026
18:45
Fiorentina
PPG 1.11
1-1
HIT MostLikelyScore
Atalanta
PPG 1.39
Draw· +3.9%
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value
42% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home
31.8%
Odds: 2.56
EV: -18.6%
Draw
30.1%
Odds: 3.45
EV: +3.9%
Away
38.1%
Odds: 2.56
EV: -2.5%
Result: Draw ✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5
46.2%
Odds: 1.70
-21.5%
Over 3.5
15.6%
Odds: 2.70
-34.7%
BTTS
48.7%
Odds: 1.55
-24.5%
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔
BTTS NO → YES ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st
1-1
✔
2nd
0-0
✘
3rd
0-1
✘
4th
1-0
✘
5th
0-2
✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Fiorentina
0.93
Atalanta
1.15
Model Suggestion
No Bet
NO VALUE BET
Model lean:
No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.
League Track Record
↗
Based on 60 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc
42%
O2.5/Under
55%
BTTS/No
47%
Score Hit
53%
ROI
-26.7%
Bet Hit
40%
(10 bets)
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value
42%
BALANCED
Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.11), Away AVERAGE (1.39)