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Lazio vs Pisa Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Regular Season - 38 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 18:45

Lazio

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Pisa

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 64.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-16.6%0-22.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.9%1-111.0%1-23.8%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.1%2-19.0%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.2%3-15.0%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-13.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 64.9% 1.54 -19.3%

Draw 25.8% 25.3% 3.95 +1.1%

Away win 21.8% 16.7% 6.00 +18.5%

Over 2.5 46.9% 55.6% 1.80 -15.6%

Over 3.5 20.8% 33.9% 2.95 -23.2%

BTTS 48.6% 55.6% 1.80 -12.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.6%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.9%

#2 2–0 13.1%

#3 1–1 11.0%

#4 0–0 9.7%

#5 2–1✓ 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lazio1.6

Pisa0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.9% · O3.5 PROB 20.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LAZIO · PPG 1.50

PISA · PPG 0.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=52.4%

Win probability 1X2

Lazio (H) 52.4%

ODDS 1.54 · IMPLIED 64.9% EV -19.3%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +1.1%

Pisa (A) 21.8%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +18.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lazio face Pisa in Italy - Serie A on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lazio a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Pisa 22%, so Lazio are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Lazio and 0.7 for Pisa (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lazio are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.44 for Pisa. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +18.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Lazio vs Pisa Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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