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Cremonese vs Como Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 38 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 18:45

Cremonese

PPG 0.89 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWL

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Como

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWWW

// Model verdict

Away 63% chance

Model probability 57.8% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-117.2%0-213.1%0-36.7%0-4+3.6%1 1-07.4%1-111.3%1-28.6%1-34.4%1-4+2.4%2 2-02.4%2-13.7%2-22.8%2-31.4%2-4+0.8%3 3-00.5%3-10.8%3-20.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.9% 18.2% 5.50 -10.8%

Draw 27.3% 24.4% 4.10 +7.2%

Away win 57.8% 64.5% 1.55 -10.4%

Over 2.5 46.2% 58.8% 1.70 -21.5%

Over 3.5 17.8% 37.0% 2.70 -31.2%

BTTS 48.6% 57.1% 1.75 -14.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob48.6%

A 58% / xG 0.7-1.5 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 17.2%

#2 0–2 13.1%

#3 1–1 11.3%

#4 0–0 11.2%

#5 1–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cremonese0.7

Como1.5

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CREMONESE · PPG 0.89

COMO · PPG 1.78

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.78) vs Home POOR (0.89)

Win probability 1X2

Cremonese (H) 14.9%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -10.8%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +7.2%

Como (A) 57.8%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cremonese face Como in Italy - Serie A on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cremonese a 15% chance, the draw 27% and Como 58%, so Como are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Cremonese and 1.5 for Como (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cremonese are averaging 0.89 points per game versus 1.78 for Como. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +7.2%. This match finished 1-4.

Cremonese vs Como Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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