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AC Milan vs Cagliari Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 38 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 18:45

AC Milan

PPG 1.78 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Cagliari

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLWW

// Model verdict

Home 70% chance

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-17.6%0-22.9%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.4%1-111.7%1-24.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.9%2-19.1%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.1%3-14.7%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-12.5%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.3% 78.1% 1.28 -33.1%

Draw 26.0% 18.9% 5.30 +22.7%

Away win 21.7% 10.0% 10.00 +70.2%

Over 2.5 46.6% 59.9% 1.67 -22.2%

Over 3.5 20.2% 37.0% 2.70 -27.3%

BTTS 49.1% 46.5% 2.15 +5.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.1%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.4%

#2 1–1 11.7%

#3 2–0 11.9%

#4 0–0 9.9%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AC Milan1.5

Cagliari0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.6% · O3.5 PROB 20.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AC MILAN · PPG 1.78

CAGLIARI · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

70%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.78) vs P(Home)=52.3%

Win probability 1X2

AC Milan (H) 52.3%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -33.1%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 5.30 · IMPLIED 18.9% EV +22.7%

Cagliari (A) 21.7%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV +70.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

AC Milan face Cagliari in Italy - Serie A on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AC Milan a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Cagliari 22%, so AC Milan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for AC Milan and 0.8 for Cagliari (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AC Milan are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 0.83 for Cagliari. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +70.2%. This match finished 1-2.

AC Milan vs Cagliari Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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