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Picerno vs Cosenza Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Monday, April 13, 2026

Picerno

PPG 1.06 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cosenza

PPG 1.24 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.8% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-18.3%0-27.0%0-34.0%0-4+2.5%1 1-06.5%1-111.0%1-29.3%1-35.3%1-4+3.3%2 2-04.3%2-17.2%2-26.1%2-33.5%2-4+2.2%3 3-01.9%3-13.2%3-22.7%3-31.5%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.4%4+-21.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.9% 32.3% 3.10 -7.3%

Draw 23.8% 33.9% 2.95 -29.8%

Away win 46.3% 43.5% 2.30 +6.5%

Over 2.5 58.0% 45.5% 2.20 +27.6%

Over 3.5 35.6% 25.0% 4.00 +42.4%

BTTS 59.8% 54.6% 1.83 +9.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 24%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob59.8%

A 46% / xG 1.3-1.7 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–1 8.3%

#4 2–1 7.2%

#5 0–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Picerno1.3

Cosenza1.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.0% · O3.5 PROB 35.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PICERNO · PPG 1.06

COSENZA · PPG 1.24

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away AVERAGE (1.24)

Win probability 1X2

Picerno (H) 29.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.3%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -29.8%

Cosenza (A) 46.3%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +6.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Picerno face Cosenza in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Picerno a 30% chance, the draw 24% and Cosenza 46%, so Cosenza are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Picerno and 1.7 for Cosenza (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Picerno are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 1.24 for Cosenza. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +42.4%.

Picerno vs Cosenza Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie C - Girone C Predictions