Today / Italy - Serie C - Girone C / Casertana vs Giugliano

Casertana vs Giugliano Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Girone C - 38 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 16:00

Casertana

PPG 2.22 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Giugliano

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 65.2% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a clear edge.

+23.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-12.8%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-010.5%1-16.9%1-22.3%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.2%2-18.7%2-22.9%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.1%3-17.3%3-22.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-012.7%4+-18.4%4+-22.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.2% 52.6% 1.90 +23.9%

Draw 22.2% 30.8% 3.25 -27.9%

Away win 12.5% 27.0% 3.70 -53.8%

Over 2.5 59.0% 51.8% 1.93 +13.9%

Over 3.5 39.2% 29.9% 3.35 +31.3%

BTTS 51.2% 57.8% 1.73 -11.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 24%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob51.2%

H 65% / xG 2.5-0.7 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.2%

#2 3–0 11.1%

#3 1–0 10.5%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 1–1✓ 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Casertana2.5

Giugliano0.7

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CASERTANA · PPG 2.22

GIUGLIANO · PPG 0.67

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.22), Away POOR (0.67) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Casertana (H) 65.2%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +23.9%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -27.9%

Giugliano (A) 12.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -53.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Casertana face Giugliano in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Casertana a 65% chance, the draw 22% and Giugliano 13%, so Casertana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Casertana and 0.7 for Giugliano (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Casertana are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 0.67 for Giugliano. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +31.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Casertana vs Giugliano Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie C - Girone C Predictions