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Picerno vs Sorrento Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Girone C - 38 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 16:00

Picerno

PPG 1.17 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Sorrento

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-14.8%0-22.3%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.2%1-19.7%1-24.6%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-19.9%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.1%3-16.8%3-23.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-15.6%4+-22.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% — — —

Draw 28.5% — — —

Away win 21.8% — — —

Over 2.5 59.0% — — —

Over 3.5 35.2% — — —

BTTS 57.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 24%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob57.8%

H 50% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–0 10.5%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 3–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Picerno2.0

Sorrento1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 35.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PICERNO · PPG 1.17

SORRENTO · PPG 0.78

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.17) > Away POOR (0.78)

Win probability 1X2

Picerno (H) 49.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sorrento (A) 21.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Picerno face Sorrento in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Picerno a 50% chance, the draw 28% and Sorrento 22%, so Picerno are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Picerno and 1.0 for Sorrento (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Picerno are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.78 for Sorrento. This match finished 0-0.

Picerno vs Sorrento Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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