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Cavese vs Cosenza Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Girone C - 38 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 16:00

Cavese

PPG 1.33 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Cosenza

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-111.3%0-25.8%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.8%1-113.3%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.6%2-17.9%2-24.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.0%3-13.1%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.8% 24.4% 4.10 +55.0%

Draw 32.7% 29.0% 3.45 +12.8%

Away win 29.5% 56.5% 1.77 -47.8%

Over 2.5 44.4% 47.6% 2.10 -6.8%

Over 3.5 18.5% 26.0% 3.85 -28.8%

BTTS 52.6% 51.8% 1.93 +1.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 24%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

D 33% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 44% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.9%

#3 1–0 12.8%

#4 0–1 11.3%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cavese1.2

Cosenza1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 18.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CAVESE · PPG 1.33

COSENZA · PPG 1.17

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Cavese (H) 37.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +55.0%

Draw 32.7%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +12.8%

Cosenza (A) 29.5%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -47.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cavese face Cosenza in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cavese a 38% chance, the draw 33% and Cosenza 30%, so Cavese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Cavese and 1.0 for Cosenza (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cavese are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.17 for Cosenza. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +55.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Cavese vs Cosenza Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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