Cavese vs Cosenza Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Italy - Serie C - Girone C Girone C - 38 Stadio Simonetta Lamberti· Cava de' Tirreni Sunday, April 26, 2026 16:00

Cavese PPG 1.33

1-1 HIT MostLikelyScore

Cosenza PPG 1.17

Home· +55.0% ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Cavese face Cosenza in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cavese a 38% chance, the draw 33% and Cosenza 30%, so Cavese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Cavese and 1.0 for Cosenza (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cavese are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.17 for Cosenza. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +55.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 37.8%

Odds: 4.10 EV: +55.0%

Draw 32.7%

Odds: 3.45 EV: +12.8%

Away 29.5%

Odds: 1.77 EV: -47.8%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 44.4% Odds: 2.10 -6.8%

Over 3.5 18.5% Odds: 3.85 -28.8%

BTTS 52.6% Odds: 1.93 +1.5%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✔

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Cavese

1.18

Cosenza

1.04

Model SuggestionBTTS +1.5% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is +1.5% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+55.0%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.17)