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Trapani vs Siracusa Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Girone C - 38 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 16:00

Trapani

PPG 1.72 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Siracusa

PPG 0.39 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-13.7%0-21.9%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.2%1-18.5%1-24.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.4%2-19.7%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.2%3-17.5%3-23.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-17.4%4+-23.8%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.0% — — —

Draw 23.1% — — —

Away win 20.9% — — —

Over 2.5 59.0% — — —

Over 3.5 42.8% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 24%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob58.5%

H 56% / xG 2.3-1.0 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 9.4%

#4 3–1 7.5%

#5 3–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trapani2.3

Siracusa1.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 42.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TRAPANI · PPG 1.72

SIRACUSA · PPG 0.39

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.72) vs P(Home)=56.0%

Win probability 1X2

Trapani (H) 56.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Siracusa (A) 20.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Trapani face Siracusa in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trapani a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Siracusa 21%, so Trapani are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Trapani and 1.0 for Siracusa (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trapani are averaging 1.72 points per game versus 0.39 for Siracusa. This match finished 2-2.

Trapani vs Siracusa Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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