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Potenza vs Monopoli Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Girone C - 38 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 16:00

Potenza

PPG 1.89 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Monopoli

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-15.9%0-22.6%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.2%1-110.7%1-24.7%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.2%2-19.8%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.8%3-16.0%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-14.1%4+-21.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 42.9% 2.33 +15.8%

Draw 28.5% 33.9% 2.95 -15.9%

Away win 21.8% 33.3% 3.00 -34.6%

Over 2.5 51.6% 47.6% 2.10 +8.4%

Over 3.5 28.7% 27.0% 3.70 +6.2%

BTTS 52.6% 56.5% 1.77 -6.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 24%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 50% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–0 11.2%

#3 1–0 12.2%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Potenza1.8

Monopoli0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

POTENZA · PPG 1.89

MONOPOLI · PPG 1.22

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.89) > Away AVERAGE (1.22)

Win probability 1X2

Potenza (H) 49.7%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV +15.8%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -15.9%

Monopoli (A) 21.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -34.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Potenza face Monopoli in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Potenza a 50% chance, the draw 28% and Monopoli 22%, so Potenza are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Potenza and 0.9 for Monopoli (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Potenza are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.22 for Monopoli. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +15.8%. This match finished 2-2.

Potenza vs Monopoli Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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