Foggia vs Salernitana Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Italy - Serie C - Girone C Girone C - 38 Stadio Pino Zaccheria· Foggia Sunday, April 26, 2026 16:00

Foggia PPG 1.11

1-3 MISS

Salernitana PPG 1.67

Home· +9.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Foggia face Salernitana in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Foggia a 29% chance, the draw 32% and Salernitana 39%, so Salernitana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Foggia and 1.3 for Salernitana (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Foggia are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 1.67 for Salernitana. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.8%. This match finished 1-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 28.9%

Odds: 3.80 EV: +9.8%

Draw 32.1%

Odds: 3.25 EV: +4.3%

Away 39.0%

Odds: 1.90 EV: -25.9%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 45.1% Odds: 2.00 -9.8%

Over 3.5 19.1% Odds: 3.50 -33.1%

BTTS 52.6% Odds: 1.77 -6.9%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 0-2 ✘

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Foggia

0.98

Salernitana

1.28

Model SuggestionBTTS -6.9% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -6.9% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+9.8%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.67) vs Home AVERAGE (1.11)