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Foggia vs Salernitana Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Girone C - 38 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 16:00

Foggia

PPG 1.11 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Salernitana

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-113.4%0-28.6%0-33.6%0-4+1.5%1 1-010.3%1-113.1%1-28.4%1-33.6%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.0%2-16.4%2-24.1%2-31.7%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.6%3-12.1%3-21.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.9% 26.3% 3.80 +9.8%

Draw 32.1% 30.8% 3.25 +4.3%

Away win 39.0% 52.6% 1.90 -25.9%

Over 2.5 45.1% 50.0% 2.00 -9.8%

Over 3.5 19.1% 28.6% 3.50 -33.1%

BTTS 52.6% 56.5% 1.77 -6.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 24%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.6%

A 39% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 45% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 10.5%

#3 0–1 13.4%

#4 0–2 8.6%

#5 1–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Foggia1.0

Salernitana1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.1% · O3.5 PROB 19.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FOGGIA · PPG 1.11

SALERNITANA · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.67) vs Home AVERAGE (1.11)

Win probability 1X2

Foggia (H) 28.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +9.8%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +4.3%

Salernitana (A) 39.0%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -25.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Foggia face Salernitana in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Foggia a 29% chance, the draw 32% and Salernitana 39%, so Salernitana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Foggia and 1.3 for Salernitana (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Foggia are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 1.67 for Salernitana. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.8%. This match finished 1-3.

Foggia vs Salernitana Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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