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Crotone vs Catania Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Girone C - 36 ·Monday, April 13, 2026

Crotone

PPG 1.82 · HOME

UPCOMING

Catania

PPG 1.47 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-110.2%0-25.2%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.7%1-113.1%1-26.7%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.2%2-18.4%2-24.3%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.5%3-13.6%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.2% 37.7% 2.65 +11.8%

Draw 28.0% 34.5% 2.90 -18.8%

Away win 29.8% 37.7% 2.65 -21.0%

Over 2.5 40.6% 43.5% 2.30 -6.6%

Over 3.5 20.2% 23.1% 4.33 -12.5%

BTTS 46.4% 52.6% 1.90 -11.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 24%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob46.4%

H 42% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 1–0 12.7%

#3 0–1 10.2%

#4 0–0 9.9%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Crotone1.3

Catania1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.6% · O3.5 PROB 20.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CROTONE · PPG 1.82

CATANIA · PPG 1.47

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.82) > Away AVERAGE (1.47)

Win probability 1X2

Crotone (H) 42.2%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +11.8%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -18.8%

Catania (A) 29.8%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -21.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Crotone face Catania in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Crotone a 42% chance, the draw 28% and Catania 30%, so Crotone are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Crotone and 1.0 for Catania (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Crotone are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.47 for Catania. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +11.8%.

Crotone vs Catania Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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