Crotone vs Catania Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Italy - Serie C - Girone C Girone C - 36 Stadio Ezio Scida· Crotone Monday, April 13, 2026 —

Crotone PPG 1.82

VS PENDING

Catania PPG 1.47

Home· +11.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Crotone face Catania in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Crotone a 42% chance, the draw 28% and Catania 30%, so Crotone are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Crotone and 1.0 for Catania (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Crotone are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.47 for Catania. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +11.8%.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 42.2%

Odds: 2.65 EV: +11.8%

Draw 28.0%

Odds: 2.90 EV: -18.8%

Away 29.8%

Odds: 2.65 EV: -21.0%

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 40.6% Odds: 2.30 -6.6%

Over 3.5 20.2% Odds: 4.33 -12.5%

BTTS 46.4% Odds: 1.90 -11.8%

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1

2nd 1-0

3rd 0-1

4th 0-0

5th 2-1

Expected Goals (xG)

Crotone

1.28

Catania

1.03

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 24%

O2.5/Under 57%

BTTS/No 48%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -20.6%

Bet Hit 43% (14 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.82) > Away AVERAGE (1.47)