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Benevento vs Cavese Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Girone C - 36 ·Monday, April 13, 2026

Benevento

PPG 2.65 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cavese

PPG 0.76 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 86.2% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a clear edge.

+33.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-11.5%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-08.6%1-14.7%1-21.3%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-013.0%2-17.0%2-21.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-013.0%3-17.1%3-21.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-020.8%4+-111.2%4+-23.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 86.2% 64.5% 1.55 +33.6%

Draw 9.8% 28.6% 3.50 -65.7%

Away win 4.0% 17.2% 5.80 -76.8%

Over 2.5 69.0% 55.6% 1.80 +24.2%

Over 3.5 47.6% 33.9% 2.95 +40.4%

BTTS 39.8% 55.6% 1.80 -28.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 24%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 77%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob39.8%

H 86% / xG 3.0-0.5 / O2.5 69% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 13.0%

#2 2–0 13.0%

#3 4–0 9.8%

#4 1–0 8.6%

#5 3–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Benevento3.0

Cavese0.5

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.0% · O3.5 PROB 47.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BENEVENTO · PPG 2.65

CAVESE · PPG 0.76

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.65), Away POOR (0.76) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Benevento (H) 86.2%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV +33.6%

Draw 9.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -65.7%

Cavese (A) 4.0%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV -76.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Benevento face Cavese in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Benevento a 86% chance, the draw 10% and Cavese 4%, so Benevento are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Benevento and 0.5 for Cavese (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Benevento are averaging 2.65 points per game versus 0.76 for Cavese. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +40.4%.

Benevento vs Cavese Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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