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Renate vs Pro Vercelli Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Girone A - 36 ·Monday, April 13, 2026

Renate

PPG 1.53 · HOME

UPCOMING

Pro Vercelli

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 69.0% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a clear edge.

+48.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-13.0%0-21.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.3%1-17.6%1-23.9%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.1%2-19.4%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.5%3-17.8%3-24.1%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-08.5%4+-18.9%4+-24.6%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.0% 46.5% 2.15 +48.4%

Draw 17.1% 32.3% 3.10 -47.0%

Away win 13.9% 31.3% 3.20 -55.5%

Over 2.5 68.6% 46.5% 2.15 +47.5%

Over 3.5 47.1% 26.0% 3.85 +81.3%

BTTS 59.4% 55.6% 1.80 +6.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 7.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob59.4%

H 69% / xG 2.5-1.0 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.4%

#2 2–0 9.1%

#3 3–1 7.8%

#4 1–1 7.6%

#5 3–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Renate2.5

Pro Vercelli1.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.6% · O3.5 PROB 47.1%

Form & verdict PPG

RENATE · PPG 1.53

PRO VERCELLI · PPG 1.06

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.53) > Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Renate (H) 69.0%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +48.4%

Draw 17.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -47.0%

Pro Vercelli (A) 13.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -55.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Renate face Pro Vercelli in Italy - Serie C - Girone A on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Renate a 69% chance, the draw 17% and Pro Vercelli 14%, so Renate are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Renate and 1.0 for Pro Vercelli (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Renate are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.06 for Pro Vercelli. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +81.3%.

Renate vs Pro Vercelli Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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