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Cittadella vs Giana Erminio Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Girone A - 38 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 18:30

Cittadella

PPG 1.67 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Giana Erminio

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.1% vs bookmaker-implied 44.4% — a clear edge.

+24.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.0%0-18.4%0-22.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.1%1-111.7%1-23.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.6%2-18.2%2-22.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.9%3-13.8%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-11.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.1% 44.4% 2.25 +24.0%

Draw 27.6% 30.8% 3.25 -10.3%

Away win 17.3% 34.7% 2.88 -50.2%

Over 2.5 33.4% 48.8% 2.05 -31.5%

Over 3.5 15.0% 27.0% 3.70 -44.5%

BTTS 35.8% 55.6% 1.80 -35.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 7.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob35.8%

H 55% / xG 1.4-0.6 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 36%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.1%

#2 0–0 13.0%

#3 2–0 12.6%

#4 1–1 11.7%

#5 0–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cittadella1.4

Giana Erminio0.6

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.4% · O3.5 PROB 15.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CITTADELLA · PPG 1.67

GIANA ERMINIO · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Cittadella (H) 55.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +24.0%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -10.3%

Giana Erminio (A) 17.3%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -50.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cittadella face Giana Erminio in Italy - Serie C - Girone A on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cittadella a 55% chance, the draw 28% and Giana Erminio 17%, so Cittadella are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Cittadella and 0.6 for Giana Erminio (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cittadella are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.17 for Giana Erminio. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +24.0%. This match finished 0-2.

Cittadella vs Giana Erminio Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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