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Lumezzane vs Virtus Verona Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Italy - Serie C - Girone A logo Italy flag Italy - Serie C - Girone A Girone A - 38 Tullio Saleri· Lumezzane Saturday, April 25, 2026 18:30
Lumezzane logo Lumezzane PPG 1.50
4-1 MISS
Virtus Verona logo Virtus Verona PPG 0.78
Home· +31.0% ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value
75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Lumezzane face Virtus Verona in Italy - Serie C - Girone A on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lumezzane a 72% chance, the draw 19% and Virtus Verona 9%, so Lumezzane are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Lumezzane and 0.6 for Virtus Verona (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lumezzane are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.78 for Virtus Verona. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +31.0%. This match finished 4-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 71.6%
Odds: 1.83 EV: +31.0%
Draw 19.1%
Odds: 3.35 EV: -36.0%
Away 9.3%
Odds: 3.95 EV: -63.3%
Model lean: Home
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 47.2% Odds: 1.90 -10.3%
Over 3.5 25.6% Odds: 3.10 -20.6%
BTTS 37.1% Odds: 1.70 -36.9%
O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0
2nd 1-0
3rd 3-0
4th 2-1
5th 1-1

Expected Goals (xG)

Lumezzane
2.00
Virtus Verona
0.56

Model Suggestion

Home +31.0% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home.

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value
75%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.78)

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