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Lumezzane vs Virtus Verona Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Girone A - 38 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 18:30

Lumezzane

PPG 1.50 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Virtus Verona

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 71.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a clear edge.

+31.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-14.3%0-21.2%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-015.4%1-18.7%1-22.4%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.4%2-18.7%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.3%3-15.8%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-08.2%4+-14.6%4+-21.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.6% 54.6% 1.83 +31.0%

Draw 19.1% 29.9% 3.35 -36.0%

Away win 9.3% 25.3% 3.95 -63.3%

Over 2.5 47.2% 52.6% 1.90 -10.3%

Over 3.5 25.6% 32.3% 3.10 -20.6%

BTTS 37.1% 58.8% 1.70 -36.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 7.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob37.1%

H 72% / xG 2.0-0.6 / O2.5 47% / NoBTTS 37%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.4%

#2 1–0 15.4%

#3 3–0 10.3%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 1–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lumezzane2.0

Virtus Verona0.6

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.2% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LUMEZZANE · PPG 1.50

VIRTUS VERONA · PPG 0.78

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.78)

Win probability 1X2

Lumezzane (H) 71.6%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV +31.0%

Draw 19.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -36.0%

Virtus Verona (A) 9.3%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -63.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lumezzane face Virtus Verona in Italy - Serie C - Girone A on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lumezzane a 72% chance, the draw 19% and Virtus Verona 9%, so Lumezzane are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Lumezzane and 0.6 for Virtus Verona (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lumezzane are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.78 for Virtus Verona. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +31.0%. This match finished 4-1.

Lumezzane vs Virtus Verona Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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