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Triestina vs Vicenza Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Girone A - 38 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 18:30

Triestina

PPG 1.56 · HOME

1 – 6

FULL TIME

Vicenza

PPG 2.28 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-113.1%0-29.5%0-34.6%0-4+2.3%1 1-08.6%1-112.5%1-29.1%1-34.4%1-4+2.2%2 2-04.1%2-15.9%2-24.3%2-32.1%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.3%3-11.9%3-21.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.7% 22.2% 4.50 +11.2%

Draw 26.5% 29.4% 3.40 -9.9%

Away win 48.7% 58.8% 1.70 -17.2%

Over 2.5 43.2% 62.5% 1.60 -30.9%

Over 3.5 22.3% 40.8% 2.45 -45.4%

BTTS 47.1% 65.4% 1.53 -27.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 7.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-6

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob47.1%

A 49% / xG 1.0-1.5 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 13.1%

#2 1–1 12.5%

#3 0–2 9.5%

#4 1–2 9.1%

#5 0–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Triestina1.0

Vicenza1.5

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.2% · O3.5 PROB 22.3%

Form & verdict PPG

TRIESTINA · PPG 1.56

VICENZA · PPG 2.28

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.28) vs Home GOOD (1.56)

Win probability 1X2

Triestina (H) 24.7%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +11.2%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.9%

Vicenza (A) 48.7%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -17.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Triestina face Vicenza in Italy - Serie C - Girone A on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Triestina a 25% chance, the draw 27% and Vicenza 49%, so Vicenza are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Triestina and 1.5 for Vicenza (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Triestina are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 2.28 for Vicenza. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +11.2%. This match finished 1-6.

Triestina vs Vicenza Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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