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Renate vs Pro Patria Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Girone A - 38 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 18:30

Renate

PPG 1.61 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Pro Patria

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 83.1% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4% — a clear edge.

+16.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-12.1%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-010.9%1-15.6%1-21.5%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.6%2-17.6%2-22.0%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.1%3-16.8%3-21.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-016.9%4+-18.8%4+-22.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 83.1% 71.4% 1.40 +16.3%

Draw 12.0% 24.4% 4.10 -50.8%

Away win 4.9% 13.9% 7.20 -64.7%

Over 2.5 62.2% 57.1% 1.75 +8.8%

Over 3.5 40.0% 35.7% 2.80 +12.0%

BTTS 37.7% 54.1% 1.85 -30.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 7.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob37.7%

H 83% / xG 2.7-0.5 / O2.5 62% / NoBTTS 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.6%

#2 3–0 13.1%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 4–0 8.8%

#5 2–1✓ 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Renate2.7

Pro Patria0.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.2% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

RENATE · PPG 1.61

PRO PATRIA · PPG 0.56

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.61), Away POOR (0.56) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Renate (H) 83.1%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV +16.3%

Draw 12.0%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -50.8%

Pro Patria (A) 4.9%

ODDS 7.20 · IMPLIED 13.9% EV -64.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Renate face Pro Patria in Italy - Serie C - Girone A on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Renate a 83% chance, the draw 12% and Pro Patria 5%, so Renate are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Renate and 0.5 for Pro Patria (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Renate are averaging 1.61 points per game versus 0.56 for Pro Patria. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +16.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Renate vs Pro Patria Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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