Renate vs Pro Patria Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Italy - Serie C - Girone A Girone A - 38 Mino Favini· Meda Saturday, April 25, 2026 18:30

Renate PPG 1.61

2-1 HIT CS5

Pro Patria PPG 0.56

Home· +16.3% 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Renate face Pro Patria in Italy - Serie C - Girone A on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Renate a 83% chance, the draw 12% and Pro Patria 5%, so Renate are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Renate and 0.5 for Pro Patria (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Renate are averaging 1.61 points per game versus 0.56 for Pro Patria. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +16.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 83.1%

Odds: 1.40 EV: +16.3%

Draw 12.0%

Odds: 4.10 EV: -50.8%

Away 4.9%

Odds: 7.20 EV: -64.7%

Model lean: Home

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 62.2% Odds: 1.75 +8.8%

Over 3.5 40.0% Odds: 2.80 +12.0%

BTTS 37.7% Odds: 1.85 -30.3%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0 ✘

2nd 3-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 4-0 ✘

5th 2-1 ✔

Expected Goals (xG)

Renate

2.69

Pro Patria

0.52

Model SuggestionHome +16.3% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home. 

Verdict & Form

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.61), Away POOR (0.56) - Strong consensus