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Arzignano vs Pro Vercelli Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Girone A - 38 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 18:30

Arzignano

PPG 1.22 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Pro Vercelli

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-15.1%0-22.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.0%1-110.0%1-24.2%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.8%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.7%3-16.4%3-22.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-15.0%4+-22.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.9% 59.9% 1.67 +6.7%

Draw 21.0% 28.6% 3.50 -26.5%

Away win 15.1% 21.1% 4.75 -28.3%

Over 2.5 53.1% 47.6% 2.10 +11.5%

Over 3.5 30.8% 26.0% 3.85 +18.6%

BTTS 48.6% 51.3% 1.95 -5.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 7.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.6%

H 64% / xG 2.0-0.8 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 12.0%

#2 2–0 11.8%

#3 1–1 10.0%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 3–0✓ 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arzignano2.0

Pro Vercelli0.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 30.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ARZIGNANO · PPG 1.22

PRO VERCELLI · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.22), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Arzignano (H) 63.9%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV +6.7%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -26.5%

Pro Vercelli (A) 15.1%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -28.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arzignano face Pro Vercelli in Italy - Serie C - Girone A on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arzignano a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Pro Vercelli 15%, so Arzignano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Arzignano and 0.8 for Pro Vercelli (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arzignano are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 1.00 for Pro Vercelli. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.6%. This match finished 3-0.

Arzignano vs Pro Vercelli Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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