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Alcione vs AlbinoLeffe Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Girone A - 38 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 18:30

Alcione

PPG 1.61 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

AlbinoLeffe

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.1% vs bookmaker-implied 35.7% — a clear edge.

+51.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.1%0-19.0%0-22.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.5%1-111.4%1-23.2%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.0%2-17.2%2-22.0%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.5%3-13.1%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-11.3%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.1% 35.7% 2.80 +51.5%

Draw 29.7% 34.7% 2.88 -14.5%

Away win 16.3% 39.2% 2.55 -58.4%

Over 2.5 27.6% 48.8% 2.05 -43.4%

Over 3.5 11.3% 27.8% 3.60 -59.3%

BTTS 30.6% 57.8% 1.73 -47.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 7.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob30.6%

H 54% / xG 1.3-0.6 / U2.5 28% / NoBTTS 31%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 20.5%

#2 0–0 16.1%

#3 2–0 13.0%

#4 1–1 11.4%

#5 0–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alcione1.3

AlbinoLeffe0.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 27.6% · O3.5 PROB 11.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ALCIONE · PPG 1.61

ALBINOLEFFE · PPG 1.11

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.61) > Away AVERAGE (1.11)

Win probability 1X2

Alcione (H) 54.1%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +51.5%

Draw 29.7%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -14.5%

AlbinoLeffe (A) 16.3%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -58.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alcione face AlbinoLeffe in Italy - Serie C - Girone A on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alcione a 54% chance, the draw 30% and AlbinoLeffe 16%, so Alcione are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Alcione and 0.6 for AlbinoLeffe (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 28% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 31% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alcione are averaging 1.61 points per game versus 1.11 for AlbinoLeffe. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +51.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Alcione vs AlbinoLeffe Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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