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Ospitaletto vs Novara Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Girone A - 38 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 18:30

Ospitaletto

PPG 1.56 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Novara

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.9% vs bookmaker-implied 44.4% — a clear edge.

+16.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.9%0-19.3%0-23.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.1%1-112.1%1-24.1%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.8%2-17.9%2-22.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.1%3-13.4%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-11.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.9% 44.4% 2.25 +16.8%

Draw 29.0% 30.3% 3.30 -4.3%

Away win 19.2% 35.1% 2.85 -45.3%

Over 2.5 31.6% 55.6% 1.80 -43.1%

Over 3.5 13.8% 33.9% 2.95 -59.3%

BTTS 35.5% 62.5% 1.60 -43.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 7.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob35.5%

H 52% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 36%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.1%

#2 0–0 13.9%

#3 1–1 12.1%

#4 2–0 11.8%

#5 0–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ospitaletto1.3

Novara0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.6% · O3.5 PROB 13.8%

Form & verdict PPG

OSPITALETTO · PPG 1.56

NOVARA · PPG 1.11

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.56) > Away AVERAGE (1.11)

Win probability 1X2

Ospitaletto (H) 51.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +16.8%

Draw 29.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -4.3%

Novara (A) 19.2%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -45.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ospitaletto face Novara in Italy - Serie C - Girone A on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ospitaletto a 52% chance, the draw 29% and Novara 19%, so Ospitaletto are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Ospitaletto and 0.7 for Novara (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ospitaletto are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.11 for Novara. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +16.8%. This match finished 0-2.

Ospitaletto vs Novara Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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