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Pergolettese vs Lecco Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Girone A - 38 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 18:30

Pergolettese

PPG 1.17 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Lecco

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.2%0-116.1%0-28.6%0-33.0%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.5%1-113.3%1-27.0%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-05.1%2-15.5%2-22.9%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.4%3-11.5%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.8% 20.0% 5.00 +39.0%

Draw 31.7% 28.2% 3.55 +12.5%

Away win 40.6% 61.7% 1.62 -34.2%

Over 2.5 29.2% 47.6% 2.10 -38.7%

Over 3.5 12.2% 26.0% 3.85 -53.0%

BTTS 36.6% 50.0% 2.00 -26.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 7.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob36.6%

A 41% / xG 0.8-1.1 / U2.5 29% / NoBTTS 37%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 16.1%

#2 0–0 15.2%

#3 1–1 13.3%

#4 1–0 12.5%

#5 0–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pergolettese0.8

Lecco1.1

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 29.2% · O3.5 PROB 12.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PERGOLETTESE · PPG 1.17

LECCO · PPG 1.78

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.78) vs Home AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Pergolettese (H) 27.8%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +39.0%

Draw 31.7%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +12.5%

Lecco (A) 40.6%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -34.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pergolettese face Lecco in Italy - Serie C - Girone A on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pergolettese a 28% chance, the draw 32% and Lecco 41%, so Lecco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Pergolettese and 1.1 for Lecco (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 29% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pergolettese are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.78 for Lecco. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +39.0%. This match finished 3-0.

Pergolettese vs Lecco Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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