Pergolettese vs Lecco Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Italy - Serie C - Girone A Girone A - 38 Giuseppe Voltini· Crema Saturday, April 25, 2026 18:30

Pergolettese PPG 1.17

3-0 MISS

Lecco PPG 1.78

Home· +39.0% ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Pergolettese face Lecco in Italy - Serie C - Girone A on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pergolettese a 28% chance, the draw 32% and Lecco 41%, so Lecco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Pergolettese and 1.1 for Lecco (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 29% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pergolettese are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.78 for Lecco. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +39.0%. This match finished 3-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 27.8%

Odds: 5.00 EV: +39.0%

Draw 31.7%

Odds: 3.55 EV: +12.5%

Away 40.6%

Odds: 1.62 EV: -34.2%

Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 29.2% Odds: 2.10 -38.7%

Over 3.5 12.2% Odds: 3.85 -53.0%

BTTS 36.6% Odds: 2.00 -26.8%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 0-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Pergolettese

0.82

Lecco

1.06

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.78) vs Home AVERAGE (1.17)