Today / Italy - Serie C - Girone A / D. Bellunesi vs Trento

D. Bellunesi vs Trento Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Girone A - 38 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 18:30

D. Bellunesi

PPG 1.17 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Trento

PPG 1.61 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-19.0%0-27.1%0-33.7%0-4+2.0%1 1-07.4%1-111.6%1-29.1%1-34.7%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.8%2-17.5%2-25.9%2-33.1%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.1%3-13.2%3-22.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.4%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.4% 19.2% 5.20 +63.3%

Draw 24.8% 24.4% 4.10 +1.7%

Away win 43.8% 66.7% 1.50 -34.3%

Over 2.5 54.3% 59.9% 1.67 -9.3%

Over 3.5 32.0% 37.0% 2.70 -13.6%

BTTS 57.3% 57.8% 1.73 -0.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 7.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob57.3%

A 44% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 0–1 9.0%

#4 2–1 7.5%

#5 1–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. Bellunesi1.3

Trento1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.3% · O3.5 PROB 32.0%

Form & verdict PPG

D. BELLUNESI · PPG 1.17

TRENTO · PPG 1.61

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.17) vs Away GOOD (1.61)

Win probability 1X2

D. Bellunesi (H) 31.4%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +63.3%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +1.7%

Trento (A) 43.8%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -34.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. Bellunesi face Trento in Italy - Serie C - Girone A on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. Bellunesi a 31% chance, the draw 25% and Trento 44%, so Trento are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for D. Bellunesi and 1.6 for Trento (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. Bellunesi are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.61 for Trento. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +63.3%. This match finished 0-0.

D. Bellunesi vs Trento Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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