Today / Jamaica - Premier League / Waterhouse vs Dunbeholden

Waterhouse vs Dunbeholden Prediction— Jamaica - Premier League

Regular Season - 39 ·Wednesday, May 6, 2026, 20:30

Waterhouse

PPG 1.45 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

Dunbeholden

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.0%0-19.0%0-23.4%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.4%1-112.3%1-24.6%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.3%2-18.5%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.2%3-13.9%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-11.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.0% 76.9% 1.30 -36.3%

Draw 27.3% 18.5% 5.40 +28.4%

Away win 23.7% 14.7% 6.80 +36.7%

Over 2.5 45.8% 69.4% 1.44 -34.1%

Over 3.5 16.5% 46.5% 2.15 -38.7%

BTTS 48.2% 58.8% 1.70 -18.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.2%

H 49% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.4%

#2 1–1 12.3%

#3 0–0 12.0%

#4 2–0 11.3%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Waterhouse1.4

Dunbeholden0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 16.5%

Form & verdict PPG

WATERHOUSE · PPG 1.45

DUNBEHOLDEN · PPG 0.95

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.45) > Away POOR (0.95)

Win probability 1X2

Waterhouse (H) 49.0%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -36.3%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +28.4%

Dunbeholden (A) 23.7%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV +36.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Waterhouse face Dunbeholden in Jamaica - Premier League on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Waterhouse a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Dunbeholden 24%, so Waterhouse are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Waterhouse and 0.8 for Dunbeholden (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Waterhouse are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 0.95 for Dunbeholden. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +36.7%. This match finished 4-0.

Waterhouse vs Dunbeholden Prediction— Jamaica - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Jamaica - Premier League Predictions