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Tivoli Gardens vs Cavalier Prediction— Jamaica - Premier League

Regular Season - 38 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 20:30

Tivoli Gardens

PPG 1.61 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Cavalier

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-112.4%0-27.7%0-33.2%0-4+1.3%1 1-010.5%1-113.2%1-28.2%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-05.6%2-17.0%2-24.4%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.0%3-12.5%3-21.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.3% 25.0% 4.00 +17.2%

Draw 32.1% 29.4% 3.40 +9.1%

Away win 38.6% 57.1% 1.75 -32.5%

Over 2.5 40.6% 51.3% 1.95 -20.8%

Over 3.5 20.3% 31.3% 3.20 -35.0%

BTTS 48.6% 55.9% 1.79 -13.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob48.6%

D 32% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 9.9%

#3 0–1 12.4%

#4 1–0 10.5%

#5 1–2 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tivoli Gardens1.1

Cavalier1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.6% · O3.5 PROB 20.3%

Form & verdict PPG

TIVOLI GARDENS · PPG 1.61

CAVALIER · PPG 1.44

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.61), Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Tivoli Gardens (H) 29.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +17.2%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +9.1%

Cavalier (A) 38.6%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -32.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tivoli Gardens face Cavalier in Jamaica - Premier League on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tivoli Gardens a 29% chance, the draw 32% and Cavalier 39%, so Cavalier are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Tivoli Gardens and 1.2 for Cavalier (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tivoli Gardens are averaging 1.61 points per game versus 1.44 for Cavalier. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +17.2%. This match finished 0-2.

Tivoli Gardens vs Cavalier Prediction— Jamaica - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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