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Portmore Utd vs Arnett Gardens Prediction— Jamaica - Premier League

Regular Season - 37 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 20:30

Portmore Utd

PPG 1.71 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Arnett Gardens

PPG 1.28 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.71) > Away AVERAGE (1.28)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-17.1%0-22.9%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.1%1-111.5%1-24.7%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.5%2-19.4%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.2%3-15.1%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-13.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% 51.3% 1.95 -9.1%

Draw 28.5% 31.3% 3.20 -8.8%

Away win 24.9% 28.6% 3.50 -12.8%

Over 2.5 50.0% 48.8% 2.05 +2.5%

Over 3.5 23.1% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.6%

H 47% / xG 1.6-0.8 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–0 14.1%

#3 2–0 11.5%

#4 0–0 8.7%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Portmore Utd1.6

Arnett Gardens0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 23.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PORTMORE UTD · PPG 1.71

ARNETT GARDENS · PPG 1.28

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.71) > Away AVERAGE (1.28)

Win probability 1X2

Portmore Utd (H) 46.6%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -9.1%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.8%

Arnett Gardens (A) 24.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -12.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Portmore Utd face Arnett Gardens in Jamaica - Premier League on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portmore Utd a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Arnett Gardens 25%, so Portmore Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Portmore Utd and 0.8 for Arnett Gardens (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portmore Utd are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.28 for Arnett Gardens. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Portmore Utd vs Arnett Gardens Prediction— Jamaica - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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