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Mount Pleasant vs Montego Bay Prediction— Jamaica - Premier League

Regular Season - 39 ·Wednesday, May 6, 2026, 20:30

Mount Pleasant

PPG 2.15 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Montego Bay

PPG 1.53 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-16.4%0-23.3%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.0%1-111.2%1-25.7%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.8%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.6%3-15.7%3-22.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-13.7%4+-21.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 44.4% 2.25 +10.9%

Draw 25.6% 29.9% 3.35 -8.5%

Away win 25.1% 35.7% 2.80 -17.8%

Over 2.5 53.1% 55.6% 1.80 -4.4%

Over 3.5 30.1% 33.3% 3.00 -9.7%

BTTS 54.6% 61.7% 1.62 -11.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 49% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1✓ 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 1–0 11.0%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mount Pleasant1.7

Montego Bay1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 30.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MOUNT PLEASANT · PPG 2.15

MONTEGO BAY · PPG 1.53

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.15) > Away GOOD (1.53)

Win probability 1X2

Mount Pleasant (H) 49.3%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +10.9%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -8.5%

Montego Bay (A) 25.1%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mount Pleasant face Montego Bay in Jamaica - Premier League on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mount Pleasant a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Montego Bay 25%, so Mount Pleasant are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Mount Pleasant and 1.0 for Montego Bay (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mount Pleasant are averaging 2.15 points per game versus 1.53 for Montego Bay. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Mount Pleasant vs Montego Bay Prediction— Jamaica - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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