Montego Bay vs Treasure Beach Prediction— Jamaica - Premier League

Jamaica - Premier League Regular Season - 38 Wespow Park· Montego Bay Sunday, May 3, 2026 20:30

Montego Bay PPG 2.33

0-2 MISS

Treasure Beach PPG 1.00

Draw· +28.1% ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Montego Bay face Treasure Beach in Jamaica - Premier League on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Montego Bay a 62% chance, the draw 23% and Treasure Beach 15%, so Montego Bay are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Montego Bay and 0.9 for Treasure Beach (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Montego Bay are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Treasure Beach. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +28.1%. This match finished 0-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 61.7%

Odds: 1.25 EV: -22.9%

Draw 23.3%

Odds: 5.50 EV: +28.1%

Away 14.9%

Odds: 7.50 EV: +11.8%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 57.7% Odds: 1.40 -19.2%

Over 3.5 35.3% Odds: 1.98 -30.1%

BTTS 54.7% Odds: 1.76 -3.7%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 3-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Montego Bay

2.06

Treasure Beach

0.94

Model SuggestionHome -22.9% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -22.9% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Draw (+28.1%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=61.7%