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Montego Bay vs Treasure Beach Prediction— Jamaica - Premier League

Regular Season - 38 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 20:30

Montego Bay

PPG 2.33 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Treasure Beach

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-14.7%0-22.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.2%1-19.6%1-24.5%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-19.9%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.2%3-16.8%3-23.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-15.6%4+-22.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.7% 80.0% 1.25 -22.9%

Draw 23.3% 18.2% 5.50 +28.1%

Away win 14.9% 13.3% 7.50 +11.8%

Over 2.5 57.7% 71.4% 1.40 -19.2%

Over 3.5 35.3% 50.5% 1.98 -30.1%

BTTS 54.7% 56.8% 1.76 -3.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.7%

H 62% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–0 10.5%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 3–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Montego Bay2.1

Treasure Beach0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.7% · O3.5 PROB 35.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MONTEGO BAY · PPG 2.33

TREASURE BEACH · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=61.7%

Win probability 1X2

Montego Bay (H) 61.7%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -22.9%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +28.1%

Treasure Beach (A) 14.9%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +11.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Montego Bay face Treasure Beach in Jamaica - Premier League on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Montego Bay a 62% chance, the draw 23% and Treasure Beach 15%, so Montego Bay are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Montego Bay and 0.9 for Treasure Beach (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Montego Bay are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Treasure Beach. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +28.1%. This match finished 0-2.

Montego Bay vs Treasure Beach Prediction— Jamaica - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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