Today / Jamaica - Premier League / Portmore Utd vs Tivoli Gardens

Portmore Utd vs Tivoli Gardens Prediction— Jamaica - Premier League

Regular Season - 39 ·Wednesday, May 6, 2026, 20:30

Portmore Utd

PPG 1.61 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Tivoli Gardens

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.0% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.7%0-17.4%0-22.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.5%1-111.4%1-23.9%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.8%2-18.8%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.6%3-14.5%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-12.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 60.6% 1.65 -15.8%

Draw 26.4% 27.0% 3.70 -1.4%

Away win 22.6% 22.7% 4.40 -0.3%

Over 2.5 45.8% 58.8% 1.70 -22.1%

Over 3.5 18.8% 36.4% 2.75 -29.0%

BTTS 48.2% 59.9% 1.67 -19.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.2%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.5%

#2 1–1 11.4%

#3 2–0 12.8%

#4 0–0 10.7%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Portmore Utd1.5

Tivoli Gardens0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PORTMORE UTD · PPG 1.61

TIVOLI GARDENS · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.61) > Away POOR (0.83)

Win probability 1X2

Portmore Utd (H) 51.0%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -15.8%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -1.4%

Tivoli Gardens (A) 22.6%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -0.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Portmore Utd face Tivoli Gardens in Jamaica - Premier League on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portmore Utd a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Tivoli Gardens 23%, so Portmore Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Portmore Utd and 0.7 for Tivoli Gardens (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portmore Utd are averaging 1.61 points per game versus 0.83 for Tivoli Gardens. This match finished 3-0.

Portmore Utd vs Tivoli Gardens Prediction— Jamaica - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Jamaica - Premier League Predictions