Portmore Utd vs Tivoli Gardens Prediction— Jamaica - Premier League

Jamaica - Premier League Regular Season - 39 Ferdi Neita Sports Complex· Portmore Wednesday, May 6, 2026 20:30

Portmore Utd PPG 1.61

3-0 MISS

Tivoli Gardens PPG 0.83

Away· -0.3% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Portmore Utd face Tivoli Gardens in Jamaica - Premier League on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portmore Utd a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Tivoli Gardens 23%, so Portmore Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Portmore Utd and 0.7 for Tivoli Gardens (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portmore Utd are averaging 1.61 points per game versus 0.83 for Tivoli Gardens. This match finished 3-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 51.0%

Odds: 1.65 EV: -15.8%

Draw 26.4%

Odds: 3.70 EV: -1.4%

Away 22.6%

Odds: 4.40 EV: -0.3%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 45.8% Odds: 1.70 -22.1%

Over 3.5 18.8% Odds: 2.75 -29.0%

BTTS 48.2% Odds: 1.67 -19.5%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Portmore Utd

1.54

Tivoli Gardens

0.69

Model SuggestionHome -15.8% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -15.8% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5/Under 56%

BTTS/No 48%

Score Hit 37%

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.61) > Away POOR (0.83)