Today / Jamaica - Premier League / Waterhouse vs Chapelton

Waterhouse vs Chapelton Prediction— Jamaica - Premier League

Regular Season - 38 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 20:30

Waterhouse

PPG 1.37 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Chapelton

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-19.9%0-24.3%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.6%1-112.9%1-25.7%1-31.7%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.6%2-18.4%2-23.7%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.2%3-13.7%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% 61.7% 1.62 -27.8%

Draw 32.2% 27.8% 3.60 +15.9%

Away win 23.2% 22.2% 4.50 +4.4%

Over 2.5 37.5% 57.1% 1.75 -34.4%

Over 3.5 17.9% 36.0% 2.78 -50.2%

BTTS 44.7% 57.5% 1.74 -22.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob44.7%

H 45% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 11.2%

#3 1–0 14.6%

#4 2–0 9.6%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Waterhouse1.3

Chapelton0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.5% · O3.5 PROB 17.9%

Form & verdict PPG

WATERHOUSE · PPG 1.37

CHAPELTON · PPG 1.06

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.37) > Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Waterhouse (H) 44.6%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -27.8%

Draw 32.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +15.9%

Chapelton (A) 23.2%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +4.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Waterhouse face Chapelton in Jamaica - Premier League on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Waterhouse a 45% chance, the draw 32% and Chapelton 23%, so Waterhouse are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Waterhouse and 0.9 for Chapelton (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Waterhouse are averaging 1.37 points per game versus 1.06 for Chapelton. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +15.9%. This match finished 3-0.

Waterhouse vs Chapelton Prediction— Jamaica - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Jamaica - Premier League Predictions