Waterhouse vs Chapelton Prediction— Jamaica - Premier League

Jamaica - Premier League Regular Season - 38 Waterhouse Mini Stadium· Kingston Sunday, May 3, 2026 20:30

Waterhouse PPG 1.37

3-0 MISS

Chapelton PPG 1.06

Draw· +15.9% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Waterhouse face Chapelton in Jamaica - Premier League on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Waterhouse a 45% chance, the draw 32% and Chapelton 23%, so Waterhouse are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Waterhouse and 0.9 for Chapelton (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Waterhouse are averaging 1.37 points per game versus 1.06 for Chapelton. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +15.9%. This match finished 3-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 44.6%

Odds: 1.62 EV: -27.8%

Draw 32.2%

Odds: 3.60 EV: +15.9%

Away 23.2%

Odds: 4.50 EV: +4.4%

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 37.5% Odds: 1.75 -34.4%

Over 3.5 17.9% Odds: 2.78 -50.2%

BTTS 44.7% Odds: 1.74 -22.2%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Waterhouse

1.31

Chapelton

0.88

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.37) > Away AVERAGE (1.06)