D. Bellunesi vs Pro Patria Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Italy - Serie C - Girone A Monday, April 13, 2026 —

D. Bellunesi PPG 1.24

VS PENDING

Pro Patria PPG 0.41

Over3.5· +40.3% ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

D. Bellunesi face Pro Patria in Italy - Serie C - Girone A on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. Bellunesi a 64% chance, the draw 19% and Pro Patria 17%, so D. Bellunesi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for D. Bellunesi and 1.1 for Pro Patria (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. Bellunesi are averaging 1.24 points per game versus 0.41 for Pro Patria. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +40.3%.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 64.0%

Odds: 1.77 EV: +13.3%

Draw 19.2%

Odds: 3.50 EV: -32.8%

Away 16.8%

Odds: 4.00 EV: -32.8%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 64.5% Odds: 1.90 +22.6%

Over 3.5 42.5% Odds: 3.30 +40.3%

BTTS 58.8% Odds: 1.77 +4.1%

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-1

2nd 2-0

3rd 1-1

4th 1-0

5th 3-1

Expected Goals (xG)

D. Bellunesi

2.25

Pro Patria

1.07

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +22.6% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+40.3%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5/Under 55%

BTTS/No 60%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 32.0%

Bet Hit 70% (10 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.24) vs P(Home)=64.0%