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D. Bellunesi vs Pro Patria Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Monday, April 13, 2026

D. Bellunesi

PPG 1.24 · HOME

UPCOMING

Pro Patria

PPG 0.41 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.5% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a clear edge.

+22.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-13.9%0-22.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.1%1-18.7%1-24.7%1-31.7%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.1%2-19.8%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.9%3-17.3%3-23.9%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-06.5%4+-17.0%4+-23.8%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.0% 56.5% 1.77 +13.3%

Draw 19.2% 28.6% 3.50 -32.8%

Away win 16.8% 25.0% 4.00 -32.8%

Over 2.5 64.5% 52.6% 1.90 +22.6%

Over 3.5 42.5% 30.3% 3.30 +40.3%

BTTS 58.8% 56.5% 1.77 +4.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 7.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.8%

H 64% / xG 2.3-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.8%

#2 2–0 9.1%

#3 1–1 8.7%

#4 1–0 8.1%

#5 3–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. Bellunesi2.3

Pro Patria1.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.5% · O3.5 PROB 42.5%

Form & verdict PPG

D. BELLUNESI · PPG 1.24

PRO PATRIA · PPG 0.41

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.24) vs P(Home)=64.0%

Win probability 1X2

D. Bellunesi (H) 64.0%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV +13.3%

Draw 19.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -32.8%

Pro Patria (A) 16.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -32.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. Bellunesi face Pro Patria in Italy - Serie C - Girone A on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. Bellunesi a 64% chance, the draw 19% and Pro Patria 17%, so D. Bellunesi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for D. Bellunesi and 1.1 for Pro Patria (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. Bellunesi are averaging 1.24 points per game versus 0.41 for Pro Patria. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +40.3%.

D. Bellunesi vs Pro Patria Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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