Today / Jamaica - Premier League / Chapelton vs Arnett Gardens

Chapelton vs Arnett Gardens Prediction— Jamaica - Premier League

Regular Season - 39 ·Wednesday, May 6, 2026, 20:30

Chapelton

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 7

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Arnett Gardens

PPG 1.37 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away AVERAGE (1.37)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-110.2%0-27.3%0-33.5%0-4+1.7%1 1-08.7%1-112.4%1-28.8%1-34.2%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.3%2-17.5%2-25.3%2-32.5%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.1%3-13.0%3-22.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.0% — — —

Draw 27.1% — — —

Away win 36.9% — — —

Over 2.5 52.8% — — —

Over 3.5 27.2% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-7

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.6%

A 37% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.2%

#3 1–2 8.8%

#4 0–1 10.2%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chapelton1.2

Arnett Gardens1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CHAPELTON · PPG 1.50

ARNETT GARDENS · PPG 1.37

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away AVERAGE (1.37)

Win probability 1X2

Chapelton (H) 36.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Arnett Gardens (A) 36.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Chapelton face Arnett Gardens in Jamaica - Premier League on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chapelton a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Arnett Gardens 37%, so Arnett Gardens are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Chapelton and 1.4 for Arnett Gardens (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chapelton are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.37 for Arnett Gardens. This match finished 2-7.

Chapelton vs Arnett Gardens Prediction— Jamaica - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Jamaica - Premier League Predictions