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Arnett Gardens vs Spanish Town P. Prediction— Jamaica - Premier League

Regular Season - 38 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 20:30

Arnett Gardens

PPG 1.33 · HOME

6 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Spanish Town P.

PPG 0.42 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home team in AVERAGE form (1.33), Away POOR (0.42) - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-13.6%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.3%1-18.4%1-23.4%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.8%2-19.6%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.0%3-17.3%3-23.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-08.8%4+-17.2%4+-22.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.4% — — —

Draw 20.2% — — —

Away win 10.5% — — —

Over 2.5 60.0% — — —

Over 3.5 37.7% — — —

BTTS 51.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.4%

H 69% / xG 2.3-0.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.8%

#2 1–1 8.4%

#3 2–1 9.6%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 3–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arnett Gardens2.3

Spanish Town P.0.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.0% · O3.5 PROB 37.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ARNETT GARDENS · PPG 1.33

SPANISH TOWN P. · PPG 0.42

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in AVERAGE form (1.33), Away POOR (0.42) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Arnett Gardens (H) 69.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Spanish Town P. (A) 10.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Arnett Gardens face Spanish Town P. in Jamaica - Premier League on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arnett Gardens a 69% chance, the draw 20% and Spanish Town P. 11%, so Arnett Gardens are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Arnett Gardens and 0.8 for Spanish Town P. (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arnett Gardens are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.42 for Spanish Town P.. This match finished 6-0.

Arnett Gardens vs Spanish Town P. Prediction— Jamaica - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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