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Maghreb de Fes vs Raja Casablanca Prediction— Morocco - Botola Pro

Regular Season - 19 ·Wednesday, May 6, 2026, 20:00

Maghreb de Fes

PPG 2.50 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Raja Casablanca

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-024.5%0-113.3%0-23.6%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.1%1-111.5%1-23.1%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.1%2-15.0%2-21.4%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.6%3-11.4%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% 31.3% 3.20 +16.8%

Draw 39.9% 35.7% 2.80 +11.7%

Away win 23.5% 42.9% 2.33 -27.2%

Over 2.5 25.8% 37.7% 2.65 -19.0%

Over 3.5 5.5% 18.2% 5.50 -41.9%

BTTS 41.8% 47.6% 2.10 -12.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -14.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob41.8%

H 36% / xG 0.9-0.5 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 24.5%

#2 1–0 21.1%

#3 1–1 11.5%

#4 0–1 13.3%

#5 2–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maghreb de Fes0.9

Raja Casablanca0.5

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 5.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MAGHREB DE FES · PPG 2.50

RAJA CASABLANCA · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=36.5%

Win probability 1X2

Maghreb de Fes (H) 36.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +16.8%

Draw 39.9%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +11.7%

Raja Casablanca (A) 23.5%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV -27.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maghreb de Fes face Raja Casablanca in Morocco - Botola Pro on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maghreb de Fes a 37% chance, the draw 40% and Raja Casablanca 24%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.9 for Maghreb de Fes and 0.5 for Raja Casablanca (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maghreb de Fes are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.50 for Raja Casablanca. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +16.8%. This match finished 0-2.

Maghreb de Fes vs Raja Casablanca Prediction— Morocco - Botola Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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