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Ittihad Tanger vs Difaa El Jadida Prediction— Morocco - Botola Pro

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 16:00

Ittihad Tanger

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDLW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Difaa El Jadida

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-022.4%0-117.9%0-27.1%0-31.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.6%1-112.5%1-25.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-05.5%2-14.4%2-21.7%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.3%3-11.0%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.0% 48.8% 2.05 -25.6%

Draw 39.3% 33.9% 2.95 +15.9%

Away win 32.7% 27.8% 3.60 +17.7%

Over 2.5 26.2% 37.0% 2.70 -17.6%

Over 3.5 6.5% 22.2% 4.50 -42.4%

BTTS 45.9% 45.5% 2.20 +1.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 22.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob45.9%

D 39% / xG 0.7-0.8 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 22.4%

#2 0–1 17.9%

#3 1–1✓ 12.5%

#4 1–0 15.6%

#5 0–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ittihad Tanger0.7

Difaa El Jadida0.8

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 26.2% · O3.5 PROB 6.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ITTIHAD TANGER · PPG 1.00

DIFAA EL JADIDA · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

Chance this pick lands

46%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.00) vs Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Ittihad Tanger (H) 28.0%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -25.6%

Draw 39.3%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +15.9%

Difaa El Jadida (A) 32.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +17.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ittihad Tanger face Difaa El Jadida in Morocco - Botola Pro on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ittihad Tanger a 28% chance, the draw 39% and Difaa El Jadida 33%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for Ittihad Tanger and 0.8 for Difaa El Jadida (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ittihad Tanger are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.33 for Difaa El Jadida. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +17.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Ittihad Tanger vs Difaa El Jadida Prediction— Morocco - Botola Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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