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Olympic Safi vs FUS Rabat Prediction— Morocco - Botola Pro

Regular Season - 20 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 16:00

Olympic Safi

PPG 0.67 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

FUS Rabat

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.1% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-112.7%0-28.6%0-33.9%0-4+1.8%1 1-09.5%1-112.9%1-28.7%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-04.8%2-16.5%2-24.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.6%3-12.2%3-21.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.4% 40.0% 2.50 -15.9%

Draw 28.9% 34.5% 2.90 -9.7%

Away win 41.6% 35.7% 2.80 +16.5%

Over 2.5 46.9% 39.2% 2.55 +19.6%

Over 3.5 21.3% 20.0% 5.00 +3.9%

BTTS 52.1% 48.8% 2.05 +6.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -14.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.1%

A 42% / xG 1.0-1.4 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.9%

#2 0–0 9.4%

#3 0–1 12.7%

#4 1–2 8.7%

#5 0–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Olympic Safi1.0

FUS Rabat1.4

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.9% · O3.5 PROB 21.3%

Form & verdict PPG

OLYMPIC SAFI · PPG 0.67

FUS RABAT · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.67) vs Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Olympic Safi (H) 29.4%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -15.9%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -9.7%

FUS Rabat (A) 41.6%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +16.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Olympic Safi face FUS Rabat in Morocco - Botola Pro on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Olympic Safi a 29% chance, the draw 29% and FUS Rabat 42%, so FUS Rabat are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Olympic Safi and 1.4 for FUS Rabat (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Olympic Safi are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.00 for FUS Rabat. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +19.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Olympic Safi vs FUS Rabat Prediction— Morocco - Botola Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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