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FAR Rabat vs Olympic Safi Prediction— Morocco - Botola Pro

Matchday 19 ·Thursday, May 7, 2026, 20:00

FAR Rabat

PPG 2.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Olympic Safi

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDDL

// Model verdict

Home 71% chance

Model probability 64.6% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-14.3%0-20.9%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-018.1%1-18.1%1-21.8%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-017.3%2-17.7%2-21.7%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-011.0%3-14.9%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-08.1%4+-13.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.6% 73.5% 1.36 -12.1%

Draw 25.9% 25.6% 3.90 +0.6%

Away win 9.5% 11.4% 8.75 -10.1%

Over 2.5 46.5% 47.6% 2.10 -2.4%

Over 3.5 21.1% 27.0% 3.70 -13.2%

BTTS 45.9% 43.5% 2.30 +5.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 22.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob45.9%

H 65% / xG 1.9-0.4 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 17.3%

#2 1–0 18.1%

#3 3–0 11.0%

#4 0–0 9.5%

#5 1–1✓ 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FAR Rabat1.9

Olympic Safi0.4

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FAR RABAT · PPG 2.33

OLYMPIC SAFI · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

71%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=64.6%

Win probability 1X2

FAR Rabat (H) 64.6%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -12.1%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +0.6%

Olympic Safi (A) 9.5%

ODDS 8.75 · IMPLIED 11.4% EV -10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

FAR Rabat face Olympic Safi in Morocco - Botola Pro on Thursday, May 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FAR Rabat a 65% chance, the draw 26% and Olympic Safi 10%, so FAR Rabat are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for FAR Rabat and 0.4 for Olympic Safi (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FAR Rabat are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.67 for Olympic Safi. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +5.6%. This match finished 1-1.

FAR Rabat vs Olympic Safi Prediction— Morocco - Botola Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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