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Yacoub El Manso vs Kawkab M. Prediction— Morocco - Botola Pro

Regular Season - 20 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 18:00

Yacoub El Manso

PPG 0.67 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Kawkab M.

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.6%0-115.9%0-28.1%0-32.8%0-4+0.9%1 1-013.0%1-113.3%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-05.5%2-15.6%2-22.9%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.5%3-11.6%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.7% 42.0% 2.38 -17.6%

Draw 34.0% 33.3% 3.00 +2.0%

Away win 36.4% 34.5% 2.90 +5.6%

Over 2.5 34.7% 42.6% 2.35 -18.4%

Over 3.5 11.8% 22.2% 4.50 -28.1%

BTTS 48.1% 51.8% 1.93 -7.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -14.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.1%

D 34% / xG 0.8-1.0 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.6%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 0–1 15.9%

#4 1–0 13.0%

#5 0–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yacoub El Manso0.8

Kawkab M.1.0

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.7% · O3.5 PROB 11.8%

Form & verdict PPG

YACOUB EL MANSO · PPG 0.67

KAWKAB M. · PPG 0.78

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.67), Away POOR (0.78)

Win probability 1X2

Yacoub El Manso (H) 29.7%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -17.6%

Draw 34.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +2.0%

Kawkab M. (A) 36.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +5.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Yacoub El Manso face Kawkab M. in Morocco - Botola Pro on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yacoub El Manso a 30% chance, the draw 34% and Kawkab M. 36%, so Kawkab M. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Yacoub El Manso and 1.0 for Kawkab M. (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yacoub El Manso are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 0.78 for Kawkab M.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Yacoub El Manso vs Kawkab M. Prediction— Morocco - Botola Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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