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Difaa El Jadida vs Hassania Agadir Prediction— Morocco - Botola Pro

Regular Season - 19 ·Thursday, May 7, 2026, 16:00

Difaa El Jadida

PPG 1.67 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Hassania Agadir

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.2%0-111.9%0-24.4%0-31.1%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.6%1-112.9%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.5%2-17.0%2-22.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.4%3-12.5%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-10.9%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.1% 35.7% 2.80 +17.9%

Draw 32.9% 35.1% 2.85 -6.2%

Away win 25.0% 39.2% 2.55 -21.8%

Over 2.5 35.1% 37.7% 2.65 -7.0%

Over 3.5 11.2% 18.2% 5.50 -23.0%

BTTS 46.7% 47.6% 2.10 -1.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -14.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.7%

H 42% / xG 1.1-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.2%

#2 1–0 17.6%

#3 1–1 12.9%

#4 0–1 11.9%

#5 2–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Difaa El Jadida1.1

Hassania Agadir0.7

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 11.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DIFAA EL JADIDA · PPG 1.67

HASSANIA AGADIR · PPG 0.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away POOR (0.89)

Win probability 1X2

Difaa El Jadida (H) 42.1%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +17.9%

Draw 32.9%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -6.2%

Hassania Agadir (A) 25.0%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -21.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Difaa El Jadida face Hassania Agadir in Morocco - Botola Pro on Thursday, May 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Difaa El Jadida a 42% chance, the draw 33% and Hassania Agadir 25%, so Difaa El Jadida are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Difaa El Jadida and 0.7 for Hassania Agadir (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Difaa El Jadida are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.89 for Hassania Agadir. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +17.9%. This match finished 2-2.

Difaa El Jadida vs Hassania Agadir Prediction— Morocco - Botola Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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