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Hassania Agadir vs FAR Rabat Prediction— Morocco - Botola Pro

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 20:00

Hassania Agadir

PPG 1.22 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDLD

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

FAR Rabat

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDLD

// Model verdict

Away 60% chance

Model probability 57.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.8%0-121.2%0-214.2%0-36.4%0-4+2.9%1 1-07.9%1-110.7%1-27.2%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-02.0%2-12.7%2-21.8%2-30.8%2-4+0.4%3 3-00.3%3-10.4%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.5% 19.0% 5.25 -17.5%

Draw 29.4% 29.4% 3.40 -0.0%

Away win 57.1% 61.7% 1.62 -7.5%

Over 2.5 35.1% 45.5% 2.20 -22.8%

Over 3.5 11.6% 23.8% 4.20 -30.8%

BTTS 45.9% 47.6% 2.10 -3.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 22.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob45.9%

A 57% / xG 0.5-1.3 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 21.2%

#2 0–0 15.8%

#3 0–2 14.2%

#4 1–1 10.7%

#5 1–2 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hassania Agadir0.5

FAR Rabat1.3

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 11.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HASSANIA AGADIR · PPG 1.22

FAR RABAT · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

60%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.22) vs Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Hassania Agadir (H) 13.5%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -17.5%

Draw 29.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -0.0%

FAR Rabat (A) 57.1%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -7.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hassania Agadir face FAR Rabat in Morocco - Botola Pro on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hassania Agadir a 14% chance, the draw 29% and FAR Rabat 57%, so FAR Rabat are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Hassania Agadir and 1.3 for FAR Rabat (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hassania Agadir are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 1.67 for FAR Rabat. This match finished 2-3.

Hassania Agadir vs FAR Rabat Prediction— Morocco - Botola Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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