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Kawkab M. vs R. Zemamra Prediction— Morocco - Botola Pro

Matchday 19 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 20:00

Kawkab M.

PPG 1.78 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDDD

1 – 2

FULL TIME

R. Zemamra

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDDD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.6%0-110.5%0-23.3%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.3%1-112.2%1-23.9%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.2%2-17.1%2-22.2%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.4%3-12.7%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.0%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.3% 44.4% 2.25 +6.4%

Draw 29.9% 35.1% 2.85 -8.9%

Away win 22.9% 30.8% 3.25 -15.3%

Over 2.5 35.1% 35.1% 2.85 +0.0%

Over 3.5 10.8% 18.2% 5.50 -24.4%

BTTS 45.9% 45.5% 2.20 +1.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 22.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.9%

H 47% / xG 1.2-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.6%

#2 1–0 19.3%

#3 1–1 12.2%

#4 2–0 11.2%

#5 0–1 10.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kawkab M.1.2

R. Zemamra0.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 10.8%

Form & verdict PPG

KAWKAB M. · PPG 1.78

R. ZEMAMRA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

47%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.78) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Kawkab M. (H) 47.3%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +6.4%

Draw 29.9%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -8.9%

R. Zemamra (A) 22.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -15.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kawkab M. face R. Zemamra in Morocco - Botola Pro on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kawkab M. a 47% chance, the draw 30% and R. Zemamra 23%, so Kawkab M. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Kawkab M. and 0.6 for R. Zemamra (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kawkab M. are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.00 for R. Zemamra. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.4%. This match finished 1-2.

Kawkab M. vs R. Zemamra Prediction— Morocco - Botola Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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