Al Ahli Jeddah vs Al Fateh Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Saudi-Arabia - Pro League Regular Season - 28 King Abdullah Sports City· Jeddah Wednesday, May 6, 2026 18:00

Al Ahli Jeddah PPG 2.60

3-1 HIT CS5

Al Fateh PPG 0.79

Draw· +4.2% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Ahli Jeddah face Al Fateh in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Ahli Jeddah a 66% chance, the draw 22% and Al Fateh 12%, so Al Ahli Jeddah are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Al Ahli Jeddah and 0.8 for Al Fateh (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Ahli Jeddah are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 0.79 for Al Fateh. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +4.2%. This match finished 3-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 66.2%

Odds: 1.33 EV: -11.9%

Draw 22.3%

Odds: 4.80 EV: +4.2%

Away 11.5%

Odds: 8.50 EV: -1.4%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 61.3% Odds: 1.50 -8.1%

Over 3.5 43.8% Odds: 2.20 -3.6%

BTTS 52.3% Odds: 1.70 -11.1%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0 ✘

2nd 3-0 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 3-1 ✔

Expected Goals (xG)

Al Ahli Jeddah

2.63

Al Fateh

0.76

Model SuggestionHome -11.9% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -11.9% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Draw (+4.2%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5/Under 56%

BTTS/No 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -4.1%

Bet Hit 55% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.60), Away POOR (0.79) - Strong consensus