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Al Ahli Jeddah vs Al Fateh Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 28 ·Wednesday, May 6, 2026, 18:00

Al Ahli Jeddah

PPG 2.60 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Al Fateh

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWD

// Model verdict

Home 73% chance

Model probability 66.2% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-12.6%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.9%1-16.7%1-22.6%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.7%2-18.9%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.2%3-17.8%3-22.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-012.7%4+-19.6%4+-23.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.2% 75.2% 1.33 -11.9%

Draw 22.3% 20.8% 4.80 +4.2%

Away win 11.5% 11.8% 8.50 -1.4%

Over 2.5 61.3% 66.7% 1.50 -8.1%

Over 3.5 43.8% 45.5% 2.20 -3.6%

BTTS 52.3% 58.8% 1.70 -11.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.3%

H 66% / xG 2.6-0.8 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.7%

#2 3–0 10.2%

#3 2–1 8.9%

#4 1–0 8.9%

#5 3–1✓ 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Ahli Jeddah2.6

Al Fateh0.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AL AHLI JEDDAH · PPG 2.60

AL FATEH · PPG 0.79

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

73%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.60), Away POOR (0.79) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Al Ahli Jeddah (H) 66.2%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -11.9%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +4.2%

Al Fateh (A) 11.5%

ODDS 8.50 · IMPLIED 11.8% EV -1.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Ahli Jeddah face Al Fateh in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Ahli Jeddah a 66% chance, the draw 22% and Al Fateh 12%, so Al Ahli Jeddah are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Al Ahli Jeddah and 0.8 for Al Fateh (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Ahli Jeddah are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 0.79 for Al Fateh. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +4.2%. This match finished 3-1.

Al Ahli Jeddah vs Al Fateh Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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