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Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 18:00

Al-Ittihad FC

PPG 1.79 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWD ·

UPCOMING

Al-Nassr

PPG 2.32 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-18.6%0-27.4%0-34.2%0-4+2.7%1 1-06.4%1-111.0%1-29.4%1-35.4%1-4+3.4%2 2-04.1%2-17.0%2-26.0%2-33.4%2-4+2.2%3 3-01.7%3-13.0%3-22.6%3-31.5%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.6% 20.0% 5.00 +28.8%

Draw 23.8% 21.7% 4.60 +5.7%

Away win 46.6% 65.4% 1.53 -28.7%

Over 2.5 59.6% 72.5% 1.38 -17.8%

Over 3.5 36.4% 50.0% 2.00 -27.2%

BTTS 60.4% 69.0% 1.45 -12.4%

Home O1.5 38.4% 38.5% 2.60 -0.2%

Away O1.5 47.9% 72.5% 1.38 -33.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -19.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob60.4%

A 47% / xG 1.3-1.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 2–1 7.0%

#4 0–2 7.4%

#5 0–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al-Ittihad FC1.3

Al-Nassr1.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

AL-ITTIHAD FC · PPG 1.79

AL-NASSR · PPG 2.32

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.44 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Al-Ittihad FC (H) 29.6%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +28.8%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +5.7%

Al-Nassr (A) 46.6%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -28.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al-Ittihad FC face Al-Nassr in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 30% chance, the draw 24% and Al-Nassr 47%, so Al-Nassr are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.7 for Al-Nassr (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 2.32 for Al-Nassr. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +25.3%.

Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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