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Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 15:55

Al Taawon

PPG 1.37 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDL ·

UPCOMING

Al-Fateh

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-18.3%0-23.9%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.3%1-112.3%1-25.7%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.9%2-19.2%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.9%3-14.5%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 55.6% 1.80 -16.7%

Draw 26.3% 26.7% 3.75 -0.8%

Away win 27.4% 25.3% 3.95 +4.9%

Over 2.5 50.4% 59.9% 1.67 -15.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 37.0% 2.70 -13.5%

BTTS 50.6% 63.7% 1.57 -20.6%

Home O1.5 39.9% 57.8% 1.73 -31.0%

Away O1.5 26.1% 35.7% 2.80 -16.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -19.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.6%

H 46% / xG 1.5-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 13.3%

#3 0–0 8.9%

#4 2–0 9.9%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Taawon1.5

Al-Fateh0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AL TAAWON · PPG 1.37

AL-FATEH · PPG 0.85

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.55 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Al Taawon (H) 46.3%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -16.7%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -0.8%

Al-Fateh (A) 27.4%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +4.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Taawon face Al-Fateh in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Taawon a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Al-Fateh 27%, so Al Taawon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Al Taawon and 0.9 for Al-Fateh (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Taawon are averaging 1.37 points per game versus 0.85 for Al-Fateh.

Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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