Gagra vs Dinamo Batumi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Georgia - Erovnuli Liga Regular Season - 11 David Petriashvili Stadium· Tbilisi Wednesday, May 6, 2026 17:00

Gagra PPG 0.40

1-2 MISS

Dinamo Batumi PPG 0.60

Draw· +6.0% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Gagra face Dinamo Batumi in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gagra a 41% chance, the draw 30% and Dinamo Batumi 29%, so Gagra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Gagra and 1.0 for Dinamo Batumi (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gagra are averaging 0.40 points per game versus 0.60 for Dinamo Batumi. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +6.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 40.5%

Odds: 1.80 EV: -27.1%

Draw 30.3%

Odds: 3.50 EV: +6.0%

Away 29.2%

Odds: 3.70 EV: +4.8%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 45.8% Odds: 1.85 -15.3%

Over 3.5 19.0% Odds: 2.92 -26.7%

BTTS 52.3% Odds: 1.69 -11.6%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Gagra

1.21

Dinamo Batumi

1.04

Model SuggestionBTTS -11.6% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -11.6% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Draw (+6.0%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5/Under 50%

BTTS/No 44%

Score Hit 44%

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.40), Away POOR (0.60)