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Gagra vs Dinamo Batumi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Matchday 11 ·Wednesday, May 6, 2026, 17:00

Gagra

PPG 0.40 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDLW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Dinamo Batumi

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 59.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-110.9%0-25.7%0-32.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.8%1-113.3%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.8%2-18.0%2-24.2%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.1%3-13.3%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.5% 55.6% 1.80 -27.1%

Draw 30.3% 28.6% 3.50 +6.0%

Away win 29.2% 27.0% 3.70 +4.8%

Over 2.5 45.8% 54.1% 1.85 -15.3%

Over 3.5 19.0% 34.2% 2.92 -26.7%

BTTS 52.3% 59.2% 1.69 -11.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 21.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.3%

H 40% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.6%

#3 1–0 12.8%

#4 0–1 10.9%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gagra1.2

Dinamo Batumi1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 19.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GAGRA · PPG 0.40

DINAMO BATUMI · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

57%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.40), Away POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Gagra (H) 40.5%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -27.1%

Draw 30.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +6.0%

Dinamo Batumi (A) 29.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +4.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gagra face Dinamo Batumi in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gagra a 41% chance, the draw 30% and Dinamo Batumi 29%, so Gagra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Gagra and 1.0 for Dinamo Batumi (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gagra are averaging 0.40 points per game versus 0.60 for Dinamo Batumi. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +6.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Gagra vs Dinamo Batumi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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