Today / Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2 / Gareji vs Sioni

Gareji vs Sioni Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 12:30

Gareji

PPG 2.17 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWW

UPCOMING

Sioni

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWW

// Model verdict

Home 48% chance

Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+17.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-16.3%0-22.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.6%1-110.8%1-23.7%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.2%2-19.1%2-23.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.5%3-15.2%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-13.2%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% 45.5% 2.20 +17.7%

Draw 24.5% 31.3% 3.20 -13.0%

Away win 22.0% 34.5% 2.90 -21.7%

Over 2.5 50.4% 45.5% 2.20 +10.9%

Over 3.5 28.7% 25.0% 4.00 +8.9%

BTTS 49.7% 50.3% 1.99 -1.1%

Home O1.5 49.9% — — —

Away O1.5 18.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 30.0%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.7%

H 54% / xG 1.7-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.6%

#2 2–0 13.2%

#3 1–1 10.8%

#4 0–0 9.2%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gareji1.7

Sioni0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GAREJI · PPG 2.17

SIONI · PPG 0.82

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

48%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.01 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Gareji (H) 53.5%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +17.7%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.0%

Sioni (A) 22.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -21.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gareji face Sioni in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gareji a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Sioni 22%, so Gareji are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Gareji and 0.7 for Sioni (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gareji are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 0.82 for Sioni. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.9%.

Gareji vs Sioni Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2 Predictions